Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3863 · SJC → BNA
departs 10:46 AM PT · arrives 4:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 25%
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
SJC is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
10am departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.