Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4027
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Today
WN 4027 · DEN → OAK
departs 2:01 PM MT · arrives 3:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 9,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.