Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4031 · LAS → CLE
departs 12:23 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 36%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLE that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.