Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4033 · SMF → ONT
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 3:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.