Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4087 · SNA → SJC
departs 1:22 PM PT · arrives 2:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.