Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4123
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Today
WN 4123 · SAN → BNA
departs 1:33 PM PT · arrives 7:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
BNA (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.