Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4233 · TPA → BWI
departs 3:03 PM ET · arrives 5:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 11/10 11%
Wed 11/11 9%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 24%
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.