Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4234 · TPA → BWI
departs 6:48 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 11/11 10%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.