Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4242 · AUS → PHX
departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 2:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.