Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4418 · SMF → SAN
departs 11:51 AM PT · arrives 1:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.