Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4485 · BNA → MCI
departs 2:24 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 11/11 13%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 20%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.