Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4518 · MKE → LAS
departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 3:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 25%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.