Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4521 · MDW → OMA
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 21%
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.