Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4561 · MCI → BNA
departs 12:52 PM CT · arrives 2:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 19%
Mon 11/16 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.