Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4631 · BNA → JAX
departs 12:29 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 17%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.