Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 463 · DEN → TYS
departs 2:07 PM MT · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.