Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4700
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4700 · SAN → PHX
departs 12:41 PM PT · arrives 3:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 11/11 23%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 31%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.