Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4777
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4777 · DAL → TPA
departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 45%
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.