Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 4870 · DAL → PIT
departs 1:36 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.