WN 500 · BNA → BUR

departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 500 · BNA → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?