Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 519 · DEN → JAX
departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.