Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 578 · BNA → IND
departs 1:22 PM CT · arrives 3:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 19%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.