Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 582 · SFO → LAS
departs 10:06 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 46%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.