Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 709 · STL → LGA
departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 6:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 56%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±19 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.