Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 726 · MDW → SDF
departs 12:48 PM CT · arrives 3:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 16%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.