Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 726 · SDF → TPA
departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.