Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 822 · PUJ → BWI
departs 2:36 PM AST · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PUJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
PUJ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PUJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.