Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 836 · LAS → SAN
departs 12:36 PM PT · arrives 1:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 42%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15 53%
Mon 11/16 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.