Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 865 · BUR → DEN
departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 5:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 35%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 32%
Tue 11/17 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.