Schedule: FAA flight plans.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9004
SCHEDULED
Thursday, November 12 Today
WN 9004 · STL → MCO
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 6:23 PM ET
Your aircraft is N7868K (B737), coming in as WN 2174 from HOU: in the air, landing about 3:10 PM CT, 15 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
96%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
96%
Leave 15+ late
100%
Arrive 1h+ late
29%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 60 min after the scheduled departure, about 49 min late from the gate after a typical 11-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 32%.
+7 pts
96%
Yes 96%
No 4%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 60 min after the scheduled departure, about 49 min late from the gate after a typical 11-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 47%.
+14 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 60 min after the scheduled departure, about 49 min late from the gate after a typical 11-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 10%.
+2 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.