YX 5688 · GRR → LGA

departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5688 · GRR → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?