9E 4639 · DTW → BUF

departs 6:57 AM ET · arrives 8:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4639 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?