9E 4716 · ALB → LGA

departs 2:01 PM ET · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±17 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ 2pm departures from ALB are usually not late

↓ ALB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ALB (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4716 · ALB → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?