9E 5160 · STL → LGA

departs 12:57 PM CT · arrives 4:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5160 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?