Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 1856 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

9K 1856 · RKD → BOS

departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RKD

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RKD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 1856 · RKD → BOS

Odds over time