Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 3021 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

9K 3021 · MVY → BOS

departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 2:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MVY is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MVY (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.10 in

BOS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 3021 · MVY → BOS

Odds over time