Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1003 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1003 · ORD → LGA

departs 1:34 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1003 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?