Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1526 · DFW → XNA

departs 11:26 AM CT · arrives 12:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1526 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?