Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1717 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1717 · BOS → DFW

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.45 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1717 · BOS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?