Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

departs 11:24 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±17 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
33%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts38 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?