Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

AA 2004 · LAX → DFW

departs 3:27 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.44 in

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2004 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?