Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2035 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2035 · ORD → MCO

departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MCO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2035 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?