Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2114 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2114 · SFO → PHX

departs 12:01 PM PT · arrives 3:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
32%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts38 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2114 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?