Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2604 · ORD → AUS

departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?