Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2762 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2762 · DEN → ORD

departs 12:22 PM MT · arrives 3:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2762 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?