Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2779 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2779 · BOS → ORD

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ 3pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.37 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2779 · BOS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?