Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 2836 · TYS → DFW

departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2836 · TYS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?