Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13 Tomorrow

AA 3016 · PHX → ONT

departs 12:14 PM MT · arrives 12:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ONT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3016 · PHX → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?