Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3125 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3125 · DFW → TUS

departs 2:43 PM CT · arrives 4:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3125 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?