Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

AA 3173 · PHL → BNA

departs 3:34 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.20 in

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3173 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?